🔮 Can OpenAI outperform the Nasdaq?

From:

Azeem Azhar, Exponential View <exponentialview@substack.com>

To:

Hidden Recipient <hidden@emailshot.io>

Date:

9/5/2025, 5:16 PM(3 days ago)

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🔮 Can OpenAI outperform the Nasdaq?

How I think about complex questions

Azeem Azhar

Sep 5

READ IN APP

OpenAI is expanding a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. That raised a simple question: is a private slice of OpenAI better than buying the Nasdaq?

I have an exclusive essay ready for members (arriving in your inboxes tomorrow!) breaking down the math and my assumptions in detail. Become a premium member to receive it in full tomorrow morning.

Ahead of this release, I did a quick live chat with EV readers to share my initial assumptions and answer your questions. We covered:

What helps OpenAI’s case,
What tempers its case,
And Q&A including on compute & energy constraints, competition and regulation.

Although I was skeptical at first, my calculations suggest that there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns. More in tomorrow's essay!

Azeem

P.S. Keep in mind that none of this is financial advice - only a thought experiment about the future.

	Get more from Azeem Azhar in the Substack app
	Available for iOS and Android

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