🟣 EV Daily: Nvidia's $4 trillion cliffhanger?
- Azeem Azhar, Exponential View Daily <exponentialview+ev-daily@substack.com>
- Hidden Recipient <hidden@emailshot.io>
This is EV Daily #4 – built for those who can’t afford to miss the signal. Exponential View includes the Sunday Edition, essays, and podcasts—plus EV Daily. Want to manage your email cadence? Follow these steps. Lead story: Nvidia’s $4 trillion cliffhanger?Nvidia became the first company in history to surpass a $4 trillion market valuation, but it may not be the most valuable of the AI era. Its position as the indispensable supplier of AI infrastructure is secure. But history shows that the first giant of every general-purpose technology boom sees its dominance fade as innovation spreads. In each previous wave, the early choke-point – be it steel, gasoline, operating systems or now AI accelerators – saw its margins migrate downstream as complementary layers matured. In the electricity era, U.S. Steel and AT&T scaled with the grid before profits migrated downstream to appliance makers. Mass production and the interstate-highway system lifted GM and the oil majors. That was until oil shocks, emissions rules and global rivals eventually rebalanced the field. Likewise, Microsoft saw its core OS margins plateau as value shifted to cloud infrastructure and SaaS. But this market might be different. Unlike steel and oil, Nvidia has a massive software ecosystem. We’re in the early stages of AI innovation, Nvidia may have enough runway to innovate into new markets or move vertically up the stack. And finally, unlike steel and oil, there is no chance someone will happen upon a cache of high-end AI accelerators buried in the wilderness. Capital requirements to be at the cutting edge are real barriers to entry. (Bloomberg) #Hardware Key signals, quick scanA 30-second scan of four secondary signals that hint at where the curve is bending.
Future focusA pulse-check on the ideas shaping our long-term trajectory.
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