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GM. This is Milk Road Stocks, the newsletter that just realized there’s a whole stock market outside of AI. |
Yep, Milk Road AI is now Milk Road Stocks. |
AI is still a massive part of what we cover, but our world has expanded into memory, robotics, space, energy, and the biggest opportunities across the market. So we figured our name should too. |
New name. Bigger playground. |
Today, we’re breaking down core reasons why SpaceX still has plenty of room to run. |
First, a quick detour from rockets to private markets. |
On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. |
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THREE REASONS WHY SPACEX STILL HAS LEGS 🚀 |
A cool nugget I came across today: |
SpaceX is up about 39% since its low and has climbed back above its $135 IPO price. |
There was lots of chatter about it falling below $100 but our Head of Research, Kyle, remained bullish on this stock. |
Here are his main points on SpaceX: |
1. The current valuation may be too low |
SpaceX is targeting roughly $100B in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. Elon himself said they'll "easily hit $100B by year end if they do nothing else." |
Based on that, Kyle estimates a fair value of roughly $131–$244 per share. |
Historically, Elon-linked companies have also traded at a 40-75% premium which could push that range to $183–$427. |
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2. The 2027 bull case could be even bigger |
A recent SemiAnalysis report projects SpaceX could reach a $305B annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2027. |
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That number comes from one thing: compute. |
SpaceX is attempting to add 8.6 GW of AI infrastructure in the next 16 months. The previous record was AWS at 3.8 GW in a year. So, SpaceX is essentially trying to double that pace. |
Elon values AI compute at $30-$50 per watt per year. At 10 GW, that's $300-$500B in annual revenue from compute alone. |
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3. The biggest risk is still the unlocks |
The first lockup tranche (on August 6th) hit the market with little visible impact. |
But more unlocks are coming through December which could create selling pressure and volatility. |
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The next big unlock event will come in November when their earnings release unlocks another 28%. By Day 180, 93% of early-release shares will have hit the market. |
That creates real volatility throughout the year so keep an eye out for this. |
Milk Road PRO members got the call to buy SPCX at $115 in early August when most of the market was calling for it to fall below $100. | They're now up 25% on that position. | | Along with long-term positions, this SpaceX trade is a good example of how our analysts also focus on short-term gains. | If you want to see what they’re buying before the next big move, you can follow all 5 analyst portfolios inside Milk Road PRO. | And guess what? We’re running a small campaign on PRO right now.
Details below 👇 |
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| HEADS UP: PRO'S PRICE GOES UP AUG 26 | Milk Road PRO used to be a paid newsletter with one portfolio attached. | Now it's a full platform: | Five analysts running real-time portfolios. Every position, trade, and piece of reasoning out in the open. Live notifications to keep you in the know.
| Melvin's portfolio is up 45% since he launched it in February. | If you'd put $10,000 behind his moves, you'd be sitting on about $4,500 in gains. | Five months of PRO cost $125 over that same stretch. | (Is there a better ROI on any investment right now??) | Next Wednesday, on August 26, PRO goes from $25/month to $39/month, and annual goes from $250 to $299. | Join before midnight ET on August 25 and you'll keep today's price for as long as you're a member. | |
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| | Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? | Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? | Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: | Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets
| The best part? | It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. | Save your free seat here. |
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