SWL Week in Review - Sora, United Health, Survivability of Seed Capital
More or Less Listen in for hot takes / debates on (1) Sora won’t help creators, just another war-of-attrition tool for attention (2) AI digital drugs (3) Lessons from Fin (artificial artificial intelligence from a decade ago) about the economics of agents / why the real dream of real world actions on your behalf won’t happen for business model reasons.
Some Other Hot Takes:
- Eight Sleep Supplements — I love my 8 sleep — heck I have 2! — great device.. but kinda like peloton bikes, really unclear if this is a good business at all… My trainer will tell you that all fitness businesses are bad — is the same true of sleep companies (unless they launch high margin supplements I guess?!)
- For Seed all that Matters is (1) Survivability and (2) Optionality — if you are going to be the most JR on the cap table and totally unloved (no founder re-ups for you!) … the survivability of your investment / not just the company - darn matters — and beyond that? You just need optionality to infinity (because everyone from big funds to retail would rather bet on world-changing than $10B ok businesses.
- The Regatta Model of Venture Capital — musing a year later on what my response is ‘if you are so sure the VC factory line is shutdown / and factory farmed unicorns are over’ what is next then :) … (regatta isn’t quite the right branding so very open to more visceral and universal mental model if you got it)
- I can’t believe how non-profits re-write their missions as they feel like it… — A few months ago Bill Ackman pointed out some shifts in how Harvard positioned itself to undergrads in the undergrad handbook… it was a good call out… but this week I realized that the medical school, health school, divinity school, etc. did WAY more extreme rewrites / overhauls of their stated mission based on ‘input from faculty, administrators, etc’ — it is wild that unlike for profits (make money) non-profits can do this and keep the donations / just change their goals. Non-profit governance is a MESS.
- United Health — How can you not mention this week — this really feels like a continuation of the post 10/7 narrative in many pockets .. somehow some crazy people think murder is a valid strategy? Oy boy - and here I was just worried about how the far-left thought about the sanctity of private property! I get that part of this is for the LOLs / just like Flat Earth the social economy is tilted for humor and engagement over belief — but next years are gonna be spicy.
- Congrats to Sublime Security— as much as I love hating on the ‘VC factory system’ … every once in a while it is useful / we do a play straight up the middle. Proud to have lead this seed, and excited to see how they use $60M from IVP :)
Happy Weekend,
Sam
P.S. Polymarket bets on if I can run a 3 hour marathon in Tuscon this weekend? — we will know by next week. I really don’t think marathons are fun and people do get weirdly addicted to them (they aren’t even good for you!) — but I never back down from a challenge.
sam lessin | @lessin | want to talk | podcast | stop | to get added to the mailing list email sl@wlessin.com