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GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter hotter than your laptop running 37 tabs at once. |
Here’s what we’ve got for you today: |
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TWO CRYPTO/ECONOMIC TIME BOMBS CONTINUE TO TICK |
So, good news/bad news… starting with the bad: |
We sat down this morning to record our weekly research meeting (the one you all voted to keep going last week) and our meeting notes app decided to have a meltdown. |
No recording. No transcript. Just vibes and a blank screen. |
I have the memory of a goldfish, and I don’t want to misquote what was said by our big-brain researchers - so no ‘fly on the wall’ breakdown of our meeting this week. |
(Back next week though.) 🤝 |
The good news? There's no shortage of things to talk about today. Two big stories are unfolding right now, and both have deadlines on them. |
Let's start with the one involving missiles. |
Over the weekend, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum: |
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By this morning, we were just hours away from this coming to a head. |
Then Trump called it all off. Extended the deadline by 5 days. Said conversations had been "very good and productive". |
BTC went from $68.5k to $71.5k in about 15 minutes, and the market exhaled… |
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But did it end there? Of course not. |
Minutes after the walkback, Iranian state media dropped a statement claiming there was no direct or indirect contact with Trump. |
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They also claimed Trump backed down because they threatened to hit energy infrastructure across West Asia. |
So now you've got two countries telling completely different stories about what happened. One says talks are progressing. The other says there were never any talks to begin with. |
That's... not great. |
What’s worse is, crypto markets (hell, risk assets in general) are wired directly into it all - reacting to every whisper of news. |
So watch the headlines. They'll decide whether this pump holds or folds. |
… and while two countries play the world's most dangerous game of he-said-she-said, there's another standoff we need to cover back in DC. 👇 |
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TWO CRYPTO/ECONOMIC TIME BOMBS CONTINUE TO TICK (P2) |
The CLARITY Act (the bill that would finally give crypto a regulatory rulebook) has been stuck for weeks over one loaded question: |
Should you be able to earn a return just by holding a stablecoin? |
On one side, crypto companies like Coinbase are already handing out roughly 4% annually on USDC. |
On the other side, banks are offering somewhere between 0.01% and 0.02%. |
Banks did the math, figured out they were at a crippling disadvantage, and sent in the lobbyists (grinding the CLARITY Act to a near-halt). |
Thankfully, last Thursday, Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) announced they'd reached an agreement… |
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Here's where it landed: |
Earning yield just for parking your money in a stablecoin? Off the table. Getting rewarded because you're actively spending, sending, or using a platform? Still in play.
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In short: nobody's getting paid for doing nothing with a stablecoin balance. But move that money around and you're in the clear. |
… so, is this a done deal? Not even close. |
The CLARITY Act still needs to survive a gauntlet before it means anything: |
A markup vote in the Senate Banking Committee. Clearing the full Senate (60-vote threshold). Getting aligned with the Agriculture Committee's competing draft. Merging with the House bill that went through last July. Landing on the President's desk for a signature.
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The Banking Committee is eyeing late April for its next move, once Congress returns from Easter break. |
Two stories. Two ticking clocks. |
One geopolitical, one regulatory. |
Both will shape how this week (and likely the rest of April) plays out. |
Stay sharp out there folks. |
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