Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to receive it in your inbox

The first episode is free to read!

A model can be open at one layer and closed at two others. That is normal. Your job as a builder or decision-maker is to know which layer you actually need.

How this maps to real models (the list is not exhaustive)

What changed over the past year is not that everything suddenly became open. It is that teams stopped treating openness as a single yes-or-no decision. Choices are now made layer by layer. Some teams choose open weights to control cost and deployment, even if training details remain opaque. Others accept smaller models because they need transparency and auditability. Many mix open tooling with closed models and see no contradiction in that. Once you look at openness this way, the old “open vs closed” framing stops being helpful. The real question is which parts of the system need to be open for what you are building, and which trade-offs you are willing to live with. We will come back to this throughout the series when we talk about choosing models under real constraints.

The new landscape and the camps emerging inside it

Once openness is understood as layered, the landscape becomes easier to read. What we see in 2026 is not a single open-source movement, but several distinct camps, each optimizing for a different problem.

One camp is driven by 🏗 efficiency and architectural experimentation. These teams treat compute as a constraint rather than a resource to exhaust. They focus on sparse computation, memory-aware design, routing strategies, and training discipline. DeepSeek is the clearest example, with releases like R1 and work such as Engram showing how architectural choices can substitute for brute scale. Moonshot AI and MiniMax follows a similar path, with their models optimized for agentic reasoning rather than general-purpose dominance. This camp has produced many of the signals that forced the reset in the first place.

Another camp is organized around 🏡 ecosystem adoption and default use. The goal here is not to lead every benchmark, but to become the easiest and safest option to deploy. This camp values tooling, documentation, predictable behavior, and legal clarity. Mistral AI fits this pattern well, particularly for European deployments, combining strong performance with permissive licensing and production focus.

Meta and the Llama family historically played a central role in this camp, acting as the backbone of the open ecosystem through distribution and familiarity. That role still matters today, but Llama’s future is less certain. Ongoing debates around licensing thresholds, enforcement, and Meta’s longer-term model strategy have introduced real ambiguity about how durable Llama’s open trajectory will be. As a result, Llama increasingly functions as an incumbent baseline rather than a clear signal of where open innovation is headed next.

A third camp treats openness primarily as 🔍 transparency and inspectability. These efforts prioritize releasing training data, methodologies, and intermediate artifacts, even when that limits scale or headline performance. Allen Institute for AI and its OLMo models are the clearest example. Their value shows up less in raw capability comparisons and more in research, auditing, and regulated environments where understanding how a model was built matters as much as what it can do.

(by the way, it’s me, Ksenia, who chose all the emojis, not LLM!)

Finally, there is a growing group of 💼 hybrid players who mix open and closed components deliberately. OpenAI crossed into this territory in 2025 with the release of GPT-oss models alongside GPT-5, acknowledging that open weights and closed APIs now serve different roles. NVIDIA represents another hybrid strategy. Beginning in 2025, NVIDIA expanded its open strategy beyond libraries, using open models, datasets, and domain-specific stacks to steer demand toward its integrated hardware–software ecosystem.

These camps are not competing for a single crown. They solve different problems and optimize for different risks.

The specialization era: different models for different jobs

Another important shift is that capability stopped accumulating in one place. As open models improved, their strengths separated instead of converging, and the field stopped producing a single obvious default.

Agentic systems exposed this first. Models that perform well on general reasoning benchmarks often behave poorly when asked to browse, plan, call tools, and recover from errors over many steps. This is why teams building agents increasingly rely on models like Moonshot AI’s Kimi K2 or MiniMax’s M2. These models are optimized for iteration, latency, and tool discipline rather than for single-turn correctness. In agentic workloads, that trade-off matters more than marginal gains in abstract reasoning.

Coding followed a different path. Writing correct code at scale rewards syntax precision, repository-level consistency, and low hallucination rates. This pushed coding into its own category, with models such as Mistral AI’s Devstral and Codestral, as well as OpenAI’s GPT-oss releases, becoming defaults inside development tools even when they underperform on general knowledge tasks. Many teams now treat reasoning models and coding models as separate components by design.

Multilingual performance created another hard split. Models from Alibaba under the Qwen family gained adoption because they behave consistently across dozens of languages, not because they dominate English benchmarks. For global products, that reliability outweighs incremental gains in English-only evaluations.

At the other end of the spectrum, efficiency and deployment constraints brought small models back into focus. Microsoft’s Phi models, Liquid AI’s Liquid Foundation Models, and Hugging Face’s SmolLM3 are selected for on-device inference, low latency, and predictable behavior, not for headline capability. These models rarely appear in “frontier” discussions, yet they are critical to real systems.

Vision and video made specialization unavoidable. Image and video generation depend on spatial and temporal structure that language-first scaling does not address well. Open image ecosystems built around Black Forest Labs’s FLUX models exist because visual generation selects for different architectures, training regimes, and evaluation criteria than text. Video pushes this further, with open systems like Lightricks’s LTX-2 optimized for temporal coherence and motion consistency rather than linguistic alignment.

Finally, there is specialization by domain stack, where models are not meant to stand alone at all. NVIDIA represents this category. Through Nemotron for agentic reasoning, Isaac GR00T for robotics, Cosmos for physical world modeling, Alpamayo for autonomous-vehicle reasoning, and domain-specific datasets released throughout 2025, NVIDIA has been building vertically integrated, open-weight stacks tuned for particular industries. These models are chosen less for general intelligence and more for how tightly they integrate with simulators, sensors, and downstream systems.

By late 2025, it doesn’t really make sense to ask which open model is “best.” Capability is now distributed across jobs, modalities, and deployment environments. Teams route tasks, not prompts, and assemble systems from multiple models with different strengths.

Specialization isn’t a trend on top of open-source AI. It’s the ecosystem’s natural outcome once model differences matter in production.

The geopolitical dimension

This is genuinely new. A year ago, model selection was largely a question of performance and price. In 2026, a third variable has moved into the decision path: geopolitical and regulatory risk.

Chinese open-weight models are strong by any technical measure. DeepSeek was the first open-weight reasoning model to demonstrate competitive performance at scale. The Qwen family is among the most downloaded model families globally. Kimi K2 leads on several agentic benchmarks, while MiniMax models perform strongly on tool use at a fraction of the cost of closed alternatives. Ignoring these systems on capability grounds alone is no longer defensible.

At the same time, these models face real restrictions. DeepSeek is prohibited on U.S. government devices, and agencies including NASA and the U.S. Navy have issued explicit guidance against its use. These restrictions are driven less by licensing than by concerns around provenance, training data, and national policy alignment.

This creates a question that did not exist at scale a year ago: when you use an open-weight model developed by a Chinese lab, is that a purely technical choice, or does it carry political and regulatory implications that extend beyond deployment architecture?

For most commercial teams, the honest answer is conditional rather than categorical.

The key point is that geopolitical risk is no longer abstract. It interacts directly with deployment, customer profile, and regulatory exposure. Model choice in 2026 increasingly reflects who you serve and where you operate, not only what performs best on a benchmark.

We will return to this in detail in Week 5, where we focus on adoption strategies that avoid betting the company on a single ecosystem.

What you need to decide this quarter

Over the past year, the open versus closed distinction has weakened as a guide for decision-making, leaving teams with a more granular set of choices to navigate:

The first is where dependency is acceptable. Many teams still rely on a single model or provider by default. That can work, but it should now be a conscious choice. If pricing changes, access shifts, or policy constraints appear, do you have a realistic alternative for at least part of your workload? Optionality does not require a migration. It requires knowing what could be swapped and what could not.

The second is which tasks actually need frontier capability. Not every part of a system benefits equally from the strongest available model. Reasoning-heavy paths, agentic planning, and complex synthesis may justify higher cost. Coding, retrieval, multilingual interaction, and long-context summarization often do not. Treating all tasks as if they require the same level of intelligence is now a reliable way to overspend.

The third is which layers of openness matter for what you are building. Some teams need open weights for deployment control. Others need licensing clarity. Some need training transparency for auditability. Many only need open tooling. Being explicit about this avoids both overengineering and legal surprises.

The fourth is how provenance and regulation map to your customers. Model origin, training assumptions, and deployment location now intersect with procurement rules, customer trust, and regulatory exposure. For some use cases, this excludes entire classes of models. For others, it does not matter at all. What matters is aligning model choice with who you serve and where.

The fifth decision is whether fine-tuning is actually required. A year ago, fine-tuning was often treated as the obvious answer to “why would I choose an open model.” Today, stronger base models, better prompting, routing, and retrieval mean that many systems no longer need it. Where fine-tuning remains necessary, it brings long-term ownership of data pipelines, evaluation, retraining cadence, and regression risk. This shifts the system toward ongoing operational ownership.

The sixth is exactly that – how much operational and safety responsibility you are willing to own. Open models offer control and cost advantages, and they also require monitoring, updating, evaluation, and failure handling. Teams that underestimate this often end up worse off than before. This is not an argument against open models. It is an argument for being clear-eyed about what ownership actually entails.

None of these decisions require locking into a single direction today. They do require clarity. Teams that make these trade-offs explicit now will have far more freedom as the ecosystem continues to evolve.

Open source is foundational to the industry, but using it well requires real choices. That’s why we started this series, to clarify decision-making around open source.

This series: what we’ll cover (may change or be rearranged):                         

And after the series: State of Open Source AI 2026 – our synthesized report, informed by this series and interviews with practitioners building at the frontier.

Thank you for reading! Share this article with three friends and get a 1-month subscription free! 🤍