SWL Week in Review - Whip not Muscle

From:

sam lessin <s@wlessin.com>

To:

Hidden Recipient <hidden@emailshot.io>

Date:

12/20/2025, 12:26 AM

More or Less — Predictions for 2026

We grade ourselves on our 2025 predictions and talk 2026… upshot — we did ‘ok’ on 2025, on 2026 we have a few you can actually hold us accountable for & a bunch you probably can’t.

2025 Predictions: Bitcoin Price, Solana ETFs, Crypto Regulation, Amazon Marketplace, Elon’s “TITS,” Swift Engagement, Data Centers, Material Flow Robotics, Crypto… TikTok U.S., Vertical Stacks, Media Copyright, GLP-1s — “Slop,” AI Talent Wars, Government–Tech Ties

2026 Predictions: Apple Comeback, Wearable Agents, AI Talent, AI-Driven Layoffs, Liquidity Wave, Prediction Regulations, Third Places, Games-First IP, Roblox Scrutiny, One $500B+ IPO, Nvidia Down, Google Up, Meta ATH

Also… Big Tech Check-In: Apple Loses Ground, Google’s Delta
Amazon’s $10B OpenAI Bet and Chip Diplomacy
AI Is the New UI: SaaS UX Moats Under Pressure
Does AI Adult Content Go Mainstream?
Dave on Google Doppl and AI Try-On Tech
Britt’s Pop Corner: Taylor Swift Album and Pregnancy Speculation
Industry Wish List: More DPI, Kids’ Mental Health, Waymos Everywhere

Hot Takes

Five truths of the creator economy in 2025 — Megan and the team build a deck reflecting on the state of the creator economy now — and it came out great — key five points in the TLDR:

People matter, brands don’t
Own the niche, not the category
Build worlds, not products
AI culls the undifferentiated
Short the mass market

Trillion Dollar IPOs Justify The Money Shoveling Business — I have been a broken record for years now about the fact that ‘narratives rule everything’ AND that the venture capital machine is broken BUT even I will admit that if narratives now can go public for trillions… maybe the money shovel multi-stage firms do actually skate out of this mess ok / ahead? When we start talking in trillions with even half a straight face… I guess we are just in a different world (or is this capitulation exactly the thinking before the fall?)

The Costs of Decentralization — did a fun podcast on decentralization … old topic — bundle unbundle, centralize and decentralize — I do worry that the relative cost of decentralization keeps getting higher with things like AI / benefits of centralization getting more extreme AND that the value of decentralization … resilience, safety over the longterm etc. are things folks are less and less willing to pay for…. The ultimate fear is that the cycle of centralize/decentralize … bundle/unbundle snaps and we end up in a black hole singularity.

Timezones Suck — I generally only do business in California but through fait have been working with a few teams in Europe and the Middle East (and Asia) — it really does slow business down quite a bit to have to go cross timezones… I think I need to mostly stick to investing in PST … maybe that is the pro-USA thesis? (And Mexico and Canada)

The NYT Gaming, Cooking, and Sports Co — happened to be looking at their app — and it is a great example of form following function… almost no news is left in it … every tab is entertainment… and it makes sense… people don’t actually want NEWS they want casual games, sports, and cooking (entertainment) but the snobs who subscribe to the NYT wouldn’t be caught dead paying for candy crush … so they need a cover-story-reason-to-pay (get it, cover story) … even if they just want to play wordle.

The Etiquette Narrative Might be Ultimately What I am Remembered For? — I wasn’t expecting it on my tombstone, but here we are with MORE viral videos of it AND great review of the book.

A Dominos Rolex — so I really don’t do watches… but just learned about this and it is pretty funny… If I were ever to get a Rolex, it would for sure be a dominos one… the brand team-up is just too perfect / the story it tells is straight out of Idiocracy in the best possible way.

You can’t validate someone’s legal status to work in the US before you hire them - this came up this week in some product chats and blew my mind…. This is insane.

Claudius the Claud AI Agent Running The Vending Machine — very funny... this is the type of reporting the NYT should be focused on (and weren’t we promised super intelligence like 3 years ago, not super-comedy?)

Tariff Check In. This guy is very funny… and this clip on what is going on with tariffs is pretty right (and we referenced on the pod)

Its a Facade! — this trump thing changing the facade of the Kennedy center is pretty funny… what a facade!

Whip not Muscle I have been playing more tennis recently / getting back into it… and one thing I keep thinking about is how the way you really generate power is using your body as a whip vs. muscling it. Since I last played a lot as a kid I got a lot stronger, and this is a really interesting lesson to feel / need to un-learn using strength…. I think this applies to a lot in life…. You shouldn’t be muscling it, you should be using the coil / uncoil of energy…. David wasn't actually the underdog to Goliath.

Best,
Sam

P.S. Day Four of Talking to My Boss Like an Insecure Girlfriend & Bowling Based Superheros — and this guy is hilarious … quicksand

P.P.S. Fisherman Kyle — look him up — we had date night at village pub… honestly their cod is way way less good than what jess makes at home with Kyle delivery.

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