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GM. This is Milk Road Macro, the newsletter that is here to help you think biggerly. |
Hereβs what weβve got for you today: |
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Consensus Miami is one of the largest digital asset conferences thatβs going all in on crypto and agentic commerce. Grab your passes at 20% off. |
 | Prices as of 10:00 a.m. ET. |
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HORMUNGOUS HOLD UP |
Itβs Groundhormuz Day, again. The world's most important trade chokepoint remains closed. |
The worst part? |
The United States is acting like itβs happy to keep it closed for longer. |
This might be a negotiation tactic, but if it is, itβs an expensive one. |
Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran keep hitting deadlocks. The conversation is ongoing, but confused. |
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Iran briefly claimed the strait was "fully open," yet actual traffic is still below 8% of what it used to be. |
Why it matters: |
Brent Crude is up 3.5% to $109 a barrel. Goldman Sachs warns that if this isn't fixed by July, we could see $140pb oil. High energy prices = sticky inflation. That means the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates.
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Speaking of which, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has his last FOMC meeting this week as chairman of the board. Weβll report more on that after it happens. |
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| | Where do you go to hear people talk about crypto, AI, and real capital? | If you surface-level takes, then itβs probably in my group chat. | But if you want institutions with deep pockets, youβll have to head to Consensus Miami. | Consensus Miami is one of the largest digital asset conferences thatβs going all in on crypto and agentic commerce. | Here are the key details: | | The best part? | You can get an exclusive 20% discount on passes with code MILKROAD. | Grab your tickets at 20% off. |
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BIG GOVERNMENT DOES BIG BUSINESS |
Remember when the U.S. government dropped $9B into Intel back in August 2025? |
Well, that bet just paid out big time. |
The numbers: Intel shares surged 24% in a single day, hitting a 26-year high above $82. The governmentβs profit? A cool $27B. |
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The takeaway: This is bigger than just Intel. The entire semiconductor sector went on a record-breaking 18-day winning streak. |
Investors have shifted their focus from chasing AI "apps" to chasing the "plumbing" of AI. The chips, the data centers, and the energy needed to run them. |
Wrapping up |
The big story behind these stories is scarcity. |
There is a global shortage of energy and compute. |
Thatβs whatβs driving the market and the economy right now. |
If youβre on the winning side of that, youβre doing very well. |
If you need to pay market rates for energy and compute, however, youβre going to face a lot of headwinds. |
Allocate accordingly and stay on the right side of this one! |
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BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD πͺ |
Energy giant Shell just dropped $13.6B to buy Canadian firm ARC Resources. Theyβre betting that gas and "old school" energy will stay in high demand as AI data centers suck up more power. |
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just met with the EUβs trade chief to lock in the "U.S.-EU Action Plan for Critical Minerals." In the macro world, this is a huge deal for the energy transition and the tech rivalry with China. The goal is to secure the supply chains for the stuff that actually builds batteries and chips, ensuring the West isn't left in the dust as geopolitical tensions rise. |
Real Brokerage is acquiring the iconic RE/MAX in a deal valued at $880M. Theyβre creating the "Real RE/MAX Group," which combines Realβs high-growth, AI-powered tech platform and RE/MAXβs legendary global brand and franchise network (which spans 120 countries). |
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MILKY MEME π€£ |
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ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY π₯ |
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