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It’s promo season. Performance reviews are wrapping up, calibration meetings are happening behind closed doors, and anxiety is running high.

Ever since I launched Nikhyl.AI, I’ve gotten almost a thousand career questions, and lately, the topic of promotions keeps coming up.

“I was denied promotion twice even though it was admitted that I’ve delivered next-level impact. This points to organizational dysfunction in my opinion.”

“I’ve been here almost six years and have recently been passed up for promotion to Executive Director. I’m feeling very lost and unsure if I should pursue growth here, move to a different company, or start something on my own.”

“It’s been three years since my promotion to PPM and I feel like my career has flatlined.”

The pattern is unmistakable. People aren’t just asking “how do I get promoted?”—they’re asking whether the system is broken, whether they’re being treated fairly, and whether they should quit over it.

As you navigate promotion, it’s worth taking a beat to understand the market and the employer’s perspective.

I’ve worked on VP promotions at Meta, PM career paths at Credit Karma, and performance reviews at Google—plus, I’m currently advising product leaders across the industry. This experience gives me a clear view of what companies truly prioritize when it comes to promotions. Why good people don’t get promoted. Why it sometimes takes longer. Why the feedback feels unfair. I want to make sure you consider that side, because reacting without understanding it can lead to career jeopardy.

The mistakes I see aren’t mistakes in execution. They’re mistakes in how people think about promotions in the first place.

Promotions Are Harder Now—And That’s Not Dysfunction

Let’s start with context, because without it, everything else sounds like I’m defending bad organizations.

During the ZIRP era, promotions were easier. There were always more roles at the next level. Companies were growing, headcount was expanding, and if you were an L5 doing L6 work, there was probably an L6 seat waiting for you.

That’s no longer the case.

Orgs are constrained now—reduced remote work, less headcount, pulling back from certain geos. These are business constraints, not personal attacks. When a company says “we don’t have that role here,” they’re not saying you’re bad. They’re saying the math changed.

Here’s something else that surprises people: promotions slow down as you get senior, and that’s correct. At Meta, almost everyone felt promoted 6-12 months slower than expected at senior levels. It’s a feature, not a bug. The skills required at each level are genuinely different, and organizations are right to be cautious about moving people into roles they’re not ready for.

So before you conclude the system is broken, ask yourself: has the game changed, or is the game rigged? There’s a big difference.

“What Would You Do If the Game Isn’t Rigged, Just Constrained?”

“I am an L5 product manager at Google and I feel like I’m stagnating. I was denied promotion twice even though it was admitted that I’ve delivered next-level impact. This points to organizational dysfunction in my opinion. Moreover, my scope has been taken away and moved to PMs in Mountain View—I’m in London. This is super demotivating. I need a change but I don’t know what to do.”

When I read this question, the phrase “organizational dysfunction” jumped out—not because this person is wrong to be frustrated, but because I see this framing constantly.

The moment you lose trust in your employer, your judgment becomes clouded.

They need to trust you, but you need to trust them. That doesn’t mean they do everything you hope, or that they don’t make mistakes. But the moment you start believing the system is rigged against you, you’re in trouble. You stop doing great work. You become angry, forcing management to be on the defensive. They sense it. And it only makes things worse.

Here’s the reframe that changes everything: What would you do if the game isn’t rigged, just constrained?

In this case, the person might need to relocate, transfer internally, or accept that this company doesn’t have the role they want in their location. That’s a real constraint worth addressing—very different from assuming bad faith.

Always assume the company is trying to do the right thing—even if it’s not entirely true. Because if you don’t, you’ll stop doing great work, and they’ll sense it.

Promotion as a Game Is a Trap

“I’ve been at my company for almost six years and have recently been passed up for promotion to Executive Director. I’m feeling very lost. We’ve both worked on my promotion case for the last two years, only to be told I don’t have a clear enough platform to get promoted. I applied to an Executive Director role, went through seven rounds of interviews, only to get passed up by another more qualified candidate. Have I exhausted my growth opportunities here?”

This person has spent two years building a promotion case. Seven rounds of interviews. Very straightforward conversations with their boss. And they’re still not getting promoted.

Promotion can be viewed as a game to win—where you want to beat others, rise as fast as possible, and not advancing is viewed as falling behind. This mindset is as detrimental as believing the org is out to get you.

Many people privately just want to beat the odds—get promoted faster than average. This is dangerous because when it doesn’t happen, they feel like they are losing the game, even if the reasons have merit and their career simply needs more time to unfold. In the long run, a few cycles of delay means nothing. But when you compete, you start to see everyone else as the enemy—your peers, your manager, the systems at the company.

And just because a colleague got promoted doesn’t mean you deserved it. Projects have different growth trajectories and executive visibility. Strategic projects create more opportunity to demonstrate senior skills, even if both projects are shrinking.

Don’t treat it as a race to win—play the long game. It’s okay to wait six more months. Many people have successful, well-compensated careers without ever reaching the executive level. There’s no shame in that.

Leadership Requires Different Skills—And Takes Years to Develop

“I’m a senior IC PM and feeling stuck. I quickly went from PM to Senior PM to PPM, but the subsequent options are SPPM or GPM. It’s been three years now since my promotion to PPM and I feel like my career has flatlined. The areas I’ve been told to work on are: leadership presence, building with GenAI, and communicating to executives. How do I get unstuck?”

When I read this question, I question the premise. Has this person’s career actually flatlined? Or have they simply hit the expected difficulty curve?

Early in your career, promotions come relatively quickly because each level is just a bigger version of the previous job. You’re demonstrating larger versions of the same skills. But the moment you move into leadership territory, it’s a completely different game.

The skills that make you successful at one level are genuinely different from what’s required at the next. Just because you’re a good student doesn’t mean you’re a good teacher. Being a great individual contributor doesn’t automatically make you a great manager. Being a great director doesn’t automatically translate to navigating VP politics and alignment meetings.

This is the Peter Principle: if companies promoted based on past work, everyone would end up incompetent at their current level. Smart orgs avoid this by making promotions lag, not lead. They want to see you operating at the next level before they give you the title.

The IC-to-leader gap is real: soft skills, managing more context, zoom in/out ability, supporting people indirectly, executive presence. These skills are rarely inherent. They weren’t built when you were heads-down. No class makes you great at soft skills. It takes years.

So when someone says “it’s been three years since my last promotion,” I don’t hear stagnation. I hear: you’ve reached the point where the next level requires capabilities that most people don’t naturally have. You’re being told exactly what to work on—leadership presence, executive communication. The company isn’t holding you back. They’re telling you the truth.

The career advice here isn’t to push harder for promotion. It’s to recognize there’s a real skill gap and address it directly. That might mean:

• Working with an executive coach on the specific feedback you’ve received

• Getting an executive MBA to broaden your skills and your network

• Taking a leadership role at a nonprofit to practice managing without authority

• Joining (or starting) a smaller company where you can be more hands-on while developing presence

These aren’t quick fixes. They’re investments that take time. But if you’re genuinely far from the next level, the path forward is retooling—not resentment.

Maybe Leadership Isn’t the Destination—And That’s Okay

“I’m trying to understand what is the next best role for me. I’ve been doing well as a product director at a big company and I’m on the path to getting promoted imminently. However, in large organizations with multiple VPs looking to drive their own agenda, there’s a lot of alignment and politically motivated meetings. I find these meetings drain all of my energy. I see only more and more of this type of work if I want to go up the typical ladder.”

This question is refreshingly self-aware. Most people push for promotion without asking whether they’d actually enjoy the job. This person is looking at their boss’s calendar and saying: I don’t want that life.

And they’re right to pause.

Staff IC is the terminal level at most companies. Not everyone will make the jump to leadership, and by default, people won’t. But here’s the thing: that might be the right choice.

Many engineers and designers deliberately avoid management and have more impactful careers because of it. They stay close to the craft, keep building, and find that more fulfilling than navigating organizational politics. I suspect the same is increasingly true for product management—especially in this market, where being a builder is more trend-friendly than ever.

Maybe you don’t want your boss’s job—and that’s valid. If the next level drains your energy, it’s not for you. You can remain a builder at a smaller, faster company where leadership looks different. A VP at a 50-person startup spends their time very differently than a VP at a 50,000-person company. The title might be the same, but the job is entirely different.

Feedback When Promos Are Declined Is Often Dismissed—But Consider It Carefully

“I’m a team lead at a large insurance company. My manager suddenly left the team and moved to another department. Right after he left, I started getting a lot of constructive feedback from my skip. The skip has specific examples from the past, but my manager didn’t give me any such feedback. He even commented that he hasn’t seen me doing many impactful projects. Help me understand what’s happening here.”

This is one of the most painful situations: you thought you were doing fine, then suddenly leadership is building a case against you. It feels unfair. It feels like the rules changed overnight.

When feedback comes alongside a declined promotion, it’s easy to dismiss it as justification for a decision that was already made. But consider it carefully—it often comes from sources you rarely hear from.

Here’s the reality: development feedback is rarely clear, especially for people who are performing well. Your manager might struggle to deliver tough love to high performers. They might not even know what leadership is looking for. Or they might be conflict-averse and just... not tell you.

Meanwhile, senior leaders are looking at your work from a different angle. Your manager sees your day-to-day execution—whether you hit deadlines, how you work with engineers, whether projects ship. But leadership is asking different questions: How does this person show up in executive meetings? Do they have presence? Can they influence across the organization? Can they represent the team to the CEO?

These are things your manager might never observe. They happen in rooms your manager isn’t in. So when leadership gives you feedback your manager never mentioned, it’s not that someone is lying—it’s that they’re measuring different things.

You might be doing well in the small but not in the large. Strong execution, weak presence. Both can be true.

When this person says “my manager never gave me this feedback,” I hear: your manager probably wasn’t great at developing you. That doesn’t mean the skip’s feedback is wrong. It means you were getting a pass, and now the bar has been raised.

You Own Your Own Growth

There’s a deeper lesson in that last question that I want to pull out, because I see this pattern constantly.

The person admitted the work had become “monotonous” and they were “already feeling disengaged.” In other words: they had gas left in the tank, but they weren’t using it. Their manager had low expectations, so they coasted.

Never leave gas in the tank.

Think of it like school. You had a teacher freshman year who gave you an A without much effort. Easy class, low bar. Then that teacher left. Sophomore year, you’ve got a new teacher, and suddenly you’re barely passing. What happened?

The bar was raised—but you hadn’t been learning the material. You were just hitting the minimum. And now you’re in trouble.

You own your own learning. Not the grade. The learning.

If you could do more but don’t because your manager’s expectations are low, you do it at your own jeopardy. The best people find ways to contribute beyond what’s been asked—not because someone demanded it, but because that’s how you grow. That’s how you get noticed by your skip. That’s how responsibility comes to you.

Don’t attach yourself to your manager—they may leave tomorrow. Attach yourself to your best work. You work for the company, not just your manager. Make sure your skip feels good about your progress too.

When your manager has low expectations, don’t coast. Raise the bar yourself. The cream rises. Skips notice.

The Employer’s Perspective

If there’s one thing I want you to take away from this, it’s this: try to see promotion decisions from the employer’s perspective.

Companies aren’t trying to hold you back. They’re trying to avoid promoting people into roles they’ll fail at. They’re trying to be fair across the organization, which means your manager’s opinion isn’t the only input. They’re operating under constraints—headcount, budget, org structure—that have nothing to do with your individual performance.

“I’ve spent the last five months interviewing and job hunting and nothing has materialized.”

If you’ve interviewed elsewhere and no one’s excited, this is probably the best job you can get. Don’t casually signal you’re unhappy—leadership notices, and if there’s a layoff, you might be on the list. Quitting over a missed promotion is risky in this market. Once the door closes, it doesn’t necessarily reopen.

So what should you do when you don’t get promoted? Here’s the framework:

• Don’t assume the org is out to get you. Assume it’s constrained.

• Don’t treat promotion as a game to win. Treat it as a signal about skill fit.

• Don’t dismiss feedback you haven’t heard before. Assume it’s accurate and figure out how to address it.

• Don’t assume your past rate of promotions will continue. Leadership skills take far longer to master... and might not even be appealing to you.

• Don’t leave gas in the tank. You own your own growth, regardless of your manager’s expectations.

Promotions will be harder to get in this market. That’s not dysfunction—that’s the new reality. The question is how you respond.

Have your own career question? In the coming months, we plan to focus on how to understand and maximize your relationship with your manager. Use Nikhyl.AI to ask those questions or any other career questions—it’s where these questions came from, and where the framework keeps evolving.